A HIERARCHY OF STATISTICAL REASONING ABOUT PREDICTION/UNCERTAINTY: A STUDY WITH JUNIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL TEACHERS

Abstract

This paper offers a possible answer to the question: How does the reasoning of the teachers-in-service evolves during an activity of prediction in face on uncertainty supported by statistical software? The answer to the question is presented in form of a hierarchy of reasoning on the notion of prediction, which in this case is the general hierarchy of statistical reasoning by Garfield. The answers of 6 secondary schools' teachers-in-training to a question on prediction in a chance setting were arranged to form the hierarchy. The manner the teachers conceive and reason on important notions of probability such as events, law of the big numbers and approximation are revealed during the interview.