
Through a design study to develop a hypothetical learning trajectory for informal statistical inference (ISI), students in grades 3 and 4 (n=23) were introduced to key concepts of variability, repeated sampling, and empirical sampling distribution. The five-step trajectory, with a playful approach to the randomized two-coin toss experiment, included: obtaining samples; recognizing uncertainty and expressing it with possibility language; contrasting predictions through repeated sampling; visualizing and recognizing variability among samples; assigning levels of possibilities, considering the empirical sampling distribution, when generalizing beyond the data. The results indicate that students at both grade levels can access ISI concepts, make informal inferences, and present sophisticated levels of ISI reasoning.
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